Thursday, 13 September 2012

Mont Tremblant is fastest

I found this site which has statistics for all Ironman races.

The average time for Ironman Mont Tremblant is 12:31, which makes it the fastest Ironman in North America, about the same as Florida which is 12:37.  It's almost a half-hour faster than Lake Placid and Penticton, both of which come in at 12:54, and 45 minutes faster than Wisconsin which at 13:16 is the one of the hardest courses out there.  Interestingly, the Lanzarote course in the Canary Islands looks brutal with its long high mountain climbs on the bike, but scores times similar to Penticton.  

I expected Mont Tremblant to sell out early like Wisconsin which the last couple of years sold out online the first day.  Last year MT sold out in 10 days, but here we are 3 weeks away, and it's still got openings.  Mont Tremblant 70.3 on the other hand is already sold out.  Last year it was into the winter before that happened.  So I was wrong about needing to go there to get my registration for 2013.  No problem, it was a great day as a volunteer at Ironman 2012, and it feels good to give back to the sport like that.  Now for lodgings, I found that the resort is largely booked.  I would have selected the Les Manoirs condo again, but the 2-bedroom units are all taken.  It was an excellent location, and a fair price for such a nice unit.  The resort still has some at the new sector, but it's a kilometer or two away, and sure doesn't look like walking distance like I had in June.  I will have to think about that some.  I definitely want a condo so I can cook my own food.  Pre-race eating is essential to a good race.  

Mont Tremblant offers a unique opportunity to compare athletes who did both races.  Since the Ironman is two loops of the same course as the 70.3, it will really show how someone's times compare.  This year we had 413 athletes finished both races, plus 23 who entered but recorded a DNF in whichever.  The site above calculated a comparison factor using 70.3 and Ironman races on similar courses.  At MT it's the same course, and the athlete fitness will be comparable with only two months between events.  He estimated Ironman times at 2.1 times the 70.3 time, or times 2 plus 40 minutes.  Both calculations get similar times.  The MT data comes up with a scaling of

     Full = 2.17 * half + 10 minutes

Here's a scatterplot of all athletes who did both races.  The 0.0075 offset equates to 10 minutes.

The 4 people slower than 7:40 in the 70.3 didn't finish the Ironman.  Nine others with various 70.3 times had DNF at Ironman.  The slowest swim in the 70.3 at 59:35 finished both (7:25 / 15:47).  Anyone who biked the 70.3 slower than 3:52 didn't make bike cutoff in the IM.  Slow runners still tended to finish both.

My 6:10 finish in the 70.3 puts me at 13:30 for the full.  Cool, now I don't even have to go.  as if.  

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